Could A Nuclear Iran Bring About More Stability Not Less?

by mgopin on August 26, 2012 · 2 comments

There is a pervasive fear that is being spread by American, Israeli and Sunni Gulf leaders that the most dangerous development in modern history will be the capacity of Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The fear of nuclear weapons is a natural one, and it is well deserved, because a nuclear weapon is far and away the worst technological innovation of murder ever developed in human history, probably the worst that ever will be developed.

It is especially understandable that Israel, composed mostly of Jews many of whom are from Holocaust families, would be especially vulnerable to the fear of sudden and mass extermination by inveterate enemies. Israel has almost 400 advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and yet there seems to be no limits to the fears that leaders can generate at even the possibility that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons.

Nuclear terror almost brought the world to an end in 1963, and it is amazing that humanity escaped a nuclear holocaust of 50,000 nuclear weapons aimed at each other during the Cold War. But that very reality, that the world did not disappear in 1963, should be a clue as to why the fear being expressed today that is focused exclusively on Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon may be due to an irrational and misguided reading of recent history. On the contrary, a balance of power and terror may bring about a far more stable situation, which is exactly how we escaped nuclear holocaust during the Cold War, and exactly why the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki did not escape a nuclear holocaust. Let’s examine why.

 

There was a widespread belief in policy circles that during the “real” Cold War, the one between the Soviet Union and the United States, there were two rational actors, interested in their own survival. According to the Nash Equilibrium doctrine of game theory, there was a stable situation of mutually assured destruction that prevented global thermonuclear war for decades, which in turn helped the world escape complete destruction. In fact, the actors were not as rational as was hoped, and groupthink among American military and political advisers almost brought the world to complete destruction during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Nevertheless, there was much truth to deterrence theory, and it applies today as well.

 

There is a current bias that somehow ‘rogue’ states have crazy leaders who want their own destruction, such as North Korea. Well, North Korea got nuclear weapons, and we are all still here, and so is South Korea. On the contrary, the security that nuclear weapons gave the North Korean leaders (no matter how much we may despise their regime) may have been the only thing keeping them from triggering total war between North and South in recent years. In fact, North Korean leadership have ultimately behaved rationally, in their self-interest, and not triggered their own destruction by using nuclear weapons.

 

The tragedy at the end of World War II is that there was nothing stopping the United States from using nuclear weapons on civilian populations and creating mass death that would have been an unthinkable moral act for a democracy such as the United States only a few years earlier. But the Nash equilibrium did not exist since the Japanese government did not have such weapons. And so the Americans could not resist the temptation to ‘finish off the Japanese’, even if it meant targeting and killing tens of thousands of men, women and children and vaporizing them. At the same time, the Soviet Union, which had run brutal proxy wars throughout the Cold War, as well as the United States which also ran horrible wars of communist ‘containment’ , did in fact refrain from the use of nuclear weapons all those decades, because it was irrational not to.

 

Rational actors of the West are not as rational as they always claim to be, and non-Western leaders are not as irrational as Western bias claims them to be. Even the worst dictators are known to calculate their interests very rationally. However it is true that there comes a point in time when many populations, including democratic ones, and especially their political and military leaders, miscalculate their strength and ability to win, and that is when stupid wars happen. This has happened in every civilization throughout history. That is why weapons of destruction are a horrible idea, and should be in no one’s hands, due to the possibilities of miscalculation. But once they exist, they should exist in balance, otherwise they tend to get used. That is the evidence of history so far.

 

It is every bit as likely that Israeli right wing leaders, particularly Netanyahu and Barak, are grossly miscalculating their capacity to strike Iran and “win”, contrary to the advice of almost all of their intelligence and military leadership. This is irrational action at its finest, but it is in keeping with the potential of any leadership, democratic or otherwise, to miscalculate, engage in groupthink and commit suicide. In fact, they are likely to trigger a nonconventional war that could lead to mass casualties on all sides.

 

The Israeli leadership is seriously miscalculating the capacities of the Iranian people, they are throwing a population with no inherent hatred of Israel right into the hands of leaders who are eager to put Iranian popular unrest and democratization behind them. Worse, they are playing with a fire of retaliatory actions that will spiral quickly out of control and lead to massive casualties from which several states may not recover. There already is a balance of terror between Iran and Israel, but the Israeli leadership does not see it yet, because they have nuclear weapons and Iran does not have them. A nuclear balance of terror might make them more rational, as ironic as that appears to be.

 

This imbalance of nuclear weapons is an unstable and dangerous situation of history. It is not giving enough time for a slow emergence of solutions to the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, as well as a slow decrease in the revolutionary fervor of Iranian leadership, which is aging fast, not to mention the long-term democratizing effects of the Arab Spring and that of other emerging Muslim democracies which will eventually have a positive effect on democracy in Muslim and Arab countries, and a pragmatic less ideological approach by Iran to the United States and Israel. Forcing a military encounter now is the wrong time of history and the wrong tactic. On the contrary, aggressive engagement with the Iranian population, just as the West has aggressively engaged the Chinese population, is the best known de-escalator of dangerous ideologically based warfare.

 

The dark reality of MAD and the Nash Equilibrium is that nuclear weapons are incredibly sobering to even the most arrogant ego, when they are pointed at your face. Sometimes this is all that can stand in the way of spiraling conflict. We have faced a deteriorating situation between Iran and other states ever since 1979. One can assign blame to the revolutionary spirit that was injected into the Muslim world as a result of the Iranian Revolution and the support for militant groups that fomented trouble for Gulf states, for Israel, for the West in general. There was an  immediate infusion of funds by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Gulf states into countering the Shi’ite revolutions being fomented. A horrible battleground was created in Pakistan that has left that country fractured ever sense with thousands dead, not to mention Afghanistan.

 

One can argue, from the Shi’ite side that Iran since the Revolution has finally supported persecuted Shi’ites around the world, especially in Lebanon, and that it was payback time to the West and to Israel for supporting the Shah’s murderous practices, as well as Sunni triumphalists in the Gulf, mainly Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, one can look at Iran’s allies today, Hezbollah and Syria, and be horrified by who it supports. On the other hand, one can look from the Iranian side on the dozens of American military bases that completely surround and threaten its country from all sides.

 

There are many ways to analyze destructive conflict from both sides, and this fills volumes of good analysis. But everyone can see that the conflict has gotten worse and worse, and that we are reaching a negative turning point leading to total war in which there will be massively destructive consequences on all sides.

 

More than anything, the Middle East and Iran need time for the pragmatism of engagement to sink in. Everyone, Jewish Israeli, Arab, Muslim, needs to see the benefits of economic and people to people engagement that makes all the disagreements more subject to compromise and coexistence. This can come with time, but not if unconventional war, foolishly miscalculated, sets back all these civilizations by a hundred years. It could happen.

 

Compared to that horror, a small balance of terror between Israel’s massive stockpile of nuclear weapons, and Iran perhaps developing the capacity for a few, seems like a good stimulus to a good nuclear standoff, to greater pragmatism, to a revisiting of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, to exploring the balance of terror in Korea, in the Indian subcontinent, in order to develop a global system of détentes that will parallel the process of the end of the Cold War. This is a more stable vision of the future of Iranian relations to its neighbors, and American and Israeli confrontation with their adversaries.

 

The question is whether this standoff between the West and Iran could go the way of the North Korean confrontation with the West, namely, as detestable as nuclear proliferation may be, that a situation of deterrence between Israel’s massive nuclear stockpile and weapons delivery system, the United States massive nuclear capacity in the region pointing at Iran, on the one side, may require balance. It may require some deterrence that brings about a doomsday standoff where taking military action is unacceptable to everyone. This in turn would yield years of negotiations, economic alternatives and possible new venues for detente. That may actually stabilize the situation. It may force the same kind of détente that allowed the United States and Soviet Union to make peace in the long run, despite 50,000 advanced nuclear weapons reaching their targets in minutes. If we can survive that, then the balance of terror may be a good way for two great civilizations, Israeli and Iranian, to survive their leaderships, and build a practical future together that moves from balance of terror to balance of power to balance of trade.

 

 

 

 

 

© Marc Gopin

{ 2 comments }

Ovadiah ben Avraham August 27, 2012 at 8:36 am

By this reasoning, Israel should never have attacked the plutonium factory in Syria. Before the Arab Spring (and let’s recall that Iran had a Persian Spring in which it mercilessly cut down its own citizens in the streets of Tehran), Syria passed *your* criteria of a perhaps-unsavory but “stable” regime — stable enough to receive the imprimatur of your visits as a peace-maker.

It’s bad enough now that *even* Russia is highly concerned about the Sarin and VX agents that are weaponized as binary-chemical warheads atop Syrian SCUD C & D missiles that can shower the region at a moments notice from mobile launchers (as Iraq did shower Israel with conventional explosive warheads in response to the eviction from its occupation of Kuwait by a coalition that did not include Israel). President Obama, who loathes any kind of engagement that can stick to him, has even gotten off the dime and threatened intervention if the red-line of chemical weapons usage is crossed. “Imagine” if Syria had a dozen nuclear SCUDs today. I wonder if you can.

But here you are back at the start of the same cycle, and you haven’t learned a thing. You are advocating a nuclear Iran. You didn’t discuss at all the fact that Saudi Arabia (which you accuse of destabilizing acts) has stated that it will go nuclear in response. Happy thought.

But with all your talk of “stability” based on the model of the cold-war, you have omitted a basic fact of history: the confrontation between the Muslim world and Israel has already gone eschatological in 1973 when Syria and Egypt, backed by Russia (imagine that!) attacked Israel on Yom Kippur. As if to say: we will destroy you and your G-d. That is not stability. That was a Baathist regime and a Nasserist regime using Islamic antisemitism as the driver for a full existential multi-divisional war between state armies.

Iranian stability? — you haven’t thought it through even one iota. “Imagine” what a Khomeinist regime could do with nuclear weapons if the conditions of the Persian Spring return, as they might at any time. I wonder if you can.

Your example of a “stable” N. Korea also fails completely. You have omitted N. Korea’s drive to develop an ICBM capable of striking the United States. They are putting massive resources into this effort even as their people starve. “Imagine” Russia with a nuclear proxy in Iran, and China with a nuclear proxy in N. Korea, with which they can play some very trippy “game-theory scenarios” against the United States. I wonder if you can.

My suggestion, Rabbi, is that in this season of Elul, you need to revisit your mussar roots, and find out what drives you a peace maker. Are you concerned about the world, or are you so concerned with your Internet glorification as a heroic peace-maker that you have stumbled like Ben Zoma or Acher: “He who speaks untruths shall not stand before My eyes” Higigah 14b. An Internet hero is something to be.

Let me suggest that you revisit Rav Soloveitchik’s “Kol Dodi Dofek” in this happy but serious season of Elul. I know that as a young person you had the “drama” of being “handed over” to the Rav by your father, and being loved by the Rav as if you were his own son — and that you were with the Rav up until his passing. Perhaps you were too much given over to “drama” as a young man? Always the poems? Is the learned drive to live a life of drama affecting your intellectual output?

Imagine: What if, suddenly, you couldn’t be the very-moderately renowned peace-maker you are? What if, in a sort of Husserlian epoche, you were suddenly “reduced” to just being a cab driver with no intellectual voice, but just heart. I’m sure that you would still be a peace-maker. But just perhaps your peace-making wouldn’t outrun your intellectual capacity as is happening here?

With heartfelt affection and concern, best wishes for a special High Holidays to you and your family.

Don Radlauer September 4, 2012 at 10:07 am

You have entirely missed the most crucial fact in the Israel/Iran conflict: the fact that Iran is run by a group of Twelver Shiites. This version of Shiism includes a very strong “martyrdom streak”, and has an eschatology in which a major, destructive conflict brings about the return of the messianic Hidden Imam. This is not the Soviet Union or North Korea, both of which are (or were) officially atheist and materialistic. It’s not even Pakistan (scary though Pakistani nukes are).

All the endless arguments about whether the Iranian leadership is “rational” or not (by Western standards of rationality) are really beside the point. It doesn’t matter whether the pessimistic view of Iranians’ willingness to “martyr” their country is correct or not; Israel, faced with a potentially existential threat, has to act on the pessimistic view even if we think that our deterrent probably would prevent Iran from nuking us. In that sense, Iranian nukes are absolutely not a stabilizing factor, since nobody can feel safe in the asumption that a stable “balance of terror” would in fact be adequately terrorizing to the Iranian leadership. Given that reputable experts in the field believe that Iran could indeed deliberately choose “martyrdom”, Israel is forced to ignore those experts who believe otherwise – and there goes your “stability”!

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post:

adobe premiere free download

buy cheap creative suite adobe reader download portable adobe flash direct download cheap adobe reader download 5 download adobe flash 9 for h264

adobe rider download

buy cheap adobe illustrator CS5 adobe page maker full download download and install adobe flash onto my computer cheapest free download adobe rea adobe in design 2 download

adobe photoshop 8 free download full version

buy cheap adobe after effects adobe pagemaker trial version download adobe photoshop cs3 extended download for free buy cheap adobe photodeluxe download adobe photoshop cs download osx

adobe 8 crack download

adobe acrobat x cheap can i download adobe filter factory adobe golive cs2 download buy cheap adobe nine flash player download free adobe photoshop 6 download

adobe flash player 9 cannot download to internet explorer 7

cs5 master collection cheapest free adobe pdf maker download adobe creative suite 3 download cheap download adobe cs3 free p2p adobe photoshop tutorial download

adobe acrobat pdf download free

buy cheap creative suite 5 adobe after effects cs2 download adobe flash psp download buy cheap adobe illustrator 8 download adobe illustrator cs3 crack download

adobe acrobat 6 free download

buy online creative suite 5 download adobe illustrator cs2 trial adobe live motion download buy online adobe cs3 free download pdf and adobe and download

download adobe photoshop elements 5tutorial

adobe incopy buy online free download adobe acrobat professional 6 free adobe illustrator cs2 download cheapest adobe photoshop trial download free adobe photoshop elements download

adobe photoshop 8 free download adobe photoshop cs3

adobe creative suite 5 cheap adobe download site adobe indesign download cheapest download adobe photoshop 8 cs adobe acrobat download warez

free download able adobe

cheap photoshop lightroom 3 download adobe pdf writer 4 adobe after effects demo download cheapest adobe photoshop 8 free download pdf and adobe and download

adobe flash player download for vista 32 bit os

cheapest cs5 master collection adobe flash offline download iran download adobe photoshop buy online download adobe photoshop download cracker adobe acrobat

download adobe reader 5

buy online adobe premiere pro adobe acrobat writer download adobe premiere free download buy online is download for adobe flash player free adobe file converter download

free adobe illustrator cs3 download full version

adobe web premium cheapest download add on error with adobe acrobat download adobe after effects 5 buy online free adobe photoshop elements download free download of adobe photoshop cs2